Reimagined fifth-gen Prius foreshadows new era of EV fighters

TOKYO — Just before pulling the wraps off the sleek, sporty, radically redesigned fifth-generation Prius, Toyota's global design chief dropped the big question on every doubter's mind.

"How long are you going to keep making hybrids?" Simon Humphries asked, parroting the growing legions of critics targeting Toyota for sticking with gasoline-electrics in the EV age.

Toyota's answer might well be — hybrids today, hybrids tomorrow, hybrids forever.

A quarter century after introducing the world to the fuel-sipping technology with the debut of the first-generation Prius in 1997, Toyota Motor Corp. sees hybrids in play possibly through 2050.

That is when the world's biggest carmaker aims to achieve carbon neutrality. And top executives say hybrids — even with their internal combustion engines — will play a big role in getting there.

"Of course they will," said Toyota Chairman Takeshi Uchiyamada, known as the Father of the Prius, who stunned the auto world by developing the first-generation hybrid 25 years ago.

"Some people think there's only one answer for achieving carbon neutrality," Uchiyamada said, touting the long-term potential of hybrid technology. "We think there are many choices."

Last week's unveiling of the next-generation Prius offers a peek at how Toyota plans to keep hybrid technology not just relevant, but even cutting edge, in an era all abuzz for shiny new EVs.

In interviews, Toyota executives said upcoming advances in batteries, electric motors, semiconductors and carbon-neutral fuels will give hybrid vehicles an extended lease on life. So will continual improvements in their internal combustion engines. Toyota's future wave of hybrids will challenge EVs — both in terms of eco and driving performance.

"The next step for Prius was to become a car without compromises," Humphries said. The upcoming plug-in variant, he said, is, "for all intents and purposes, an EV."

As hybrids mature into the mainstream, Toyota is spearheading a new era of hybrid popularization and profitability. Toyota's hybrids, initially loss-making niche players, now finally reap the same profit margins as traditional internal combustion vehicles, Uchiyamada said.

That is a turning point Toyota has achieved only this decade, he added.

But hybrid profitability and affordability will only grow with volume. And Toyota has high hopes for growth. It plans to sell some 5.5 million standard and plug-in hybrids a year in 2030 — more than double last year's global total of 2.6 million.

Even in 2050, Toyota envisions hybrid vehicles. But instead of burning gasoline, those clean, green runabouts will lap up carbon-neutral e-fuels and other futuristic eco-friendly propellants.

Toyota isn't ignoring EVs. It plans to sell 3.5 million of them in 2030. But it is doubling down on hybrids as the auto industry divides roughly into two camps.

• One, comprising the likes of Tesla, Volkswagen and General Motors, sees EVs as the immediate path forward.
• The other, represented by Toyota and Hyundai Motor Group, sees hybrids as a key link in a multipath approach.

As Toyota Motor Corp. President Akio Toyoda told U.S. dealers last month, the company will offer the "widest array" of powertrains in its fight against carbon. "That's our strategy and we're sticking to it," he said.

Hybrids will be potent carbon fighters in three ways, Toyota insists.

First, through technological advances, they can eke out ever-better miles per gallon. Second, through quickly tumbling costs, they can become affordable volume players, unlike pricey EVs. And finally, through peppier performance, they can widen their appeal to get more people behind the wheel.

"Toyota believes that eco cars can only contribute to the environment if they are popularized," Humphries said. "We need ecological solutions within reach of the many."

The fifth-generation Prius, with its jump in power and a plug-in variant packing more than 200 hp, has been engineered with that third goal in mind, said Masahiko Maeda, Toyota's chief technology officer and president of its vehicle development center.

Customer feedback panned the hyperefficient Prius' thrashy "CVT feel," Maeda said. The problematic driving phenomenon mimics that of a continuously variable transmission, where drivers step on the gas but don't experience a corresponding kick of acceleration.

"We wanted much better driving performance," Maeda said in a separate interview. "Especially in the U.S., people say they like cars with better acceleration."

The new Prius delivers, with a plug-in that covers 0 to 100 km/h in a snappy 6.7 seconds, down from a sluggish 11.1 seconds in the outgoing model. The standard hybrid does 7.5 seconds, an improvement over 10.4.

Indeed, hybrids are expanding beyond the eco image that long saddled the Prius as the frumpy and boring go-to car for the granola-crunching Birkenstock crowd.

The coming Crown hybrid sedan gets a high-performance Hybrid Max system, which mates a 2.4-litre turbocharged engine to a six-speed automatic transmission in a two-motor, all-wheel-drive setup. The Tundra pickup line is topped by an i-Force Max hybrid that delivers 437 hp and 5 tons of towing capability through an electric motor, twin-turbo V-6 and 10-speed automatic transmission.

"The key word is popularization, and we are doing that by expanding the scope of hybrids to meet different customer needs and different usage scenarios," Maeda said. "That makes it easier for customers to pick hybrids. You can buy them at lower prices and at many places, and that's effective in reducing carbon emissions. That is the role hybrids will play for the time being."

Toyota has sold 21.1 million hybrids worldwide over the years, and believes the 5.2 million sold in North America have cut carbon emissions by 82 million tons in that region alone.

And Toyota is just getting going. It sees lots of room to boost hybrid performance and efficiency.

"We have reached a certain point, but it is still necessary to make improvements in fuel economy with hybrid vehicles," said Satoki Oya, deputy chief engineer of the new Prius. "We are going to keep improving the numbers through technology. We aren't going to stop here."

A recent breakthrough came through an innovation called the bipolar nickel metal hydride battery. Toyota's new design delivers not only a more powerful battery, but a much more compact one — essentially doubling its power density while using the same basic chemistry.

Toyota has deployed it in the Japan-market Prius C hybrid and will also use it in the Crown.

Toyota sees solid-state batteries coming to market in the latter half of the decade. While initial applications will likely be in EVs, they may also migrate to hybrids.

Engineers see further gains through low-resistance semiconductors in hybrid inverters. They not only work faster but use less electricity. Silicon-carbide chips are the current cutting edge.

Toyota is pursuing next-generation gallium-nitride semiconductors as well, Uchiyamada said. The silvery material is said to be 1,000 times more conductive than silicon and also cheaper.

Meanwhile, the engine itself will keep evolving.

The outgoing Prius has an ultra-efficient, lean-burning 1.8-litre engine with a heat efficiency ratio of 43 per cent. Toyota thinks it can achieve efficiencies as high as 50 per cent.

That's not too far down the road, Uchiyamada said.

As gasoline and diesel gradually fade from the scene, Toyota forecasts that synthetic and biofuels will fill the void in some global markets, especially on the fringes.

South America, for instance, is already a leader in bioethanol. Diminished battery performance in frigid climates, meanwhile, may limit EV penetration in colder regions — giving hybrid technology longer legs.

The confoundedly diverse U.S. region, Maeda said, remains open to many options. From Arctic Alaska to balmy Florida, and from pickup-crazy Texas to zero-emissions California, Toyota's most important market presents the biggest jigsaw puzzle of wide-ranging demand.

The shift to carbon-neutral fuels will not only be necessary, it will further prop up demand for hybrids — possibly until carbon neutrality is achieved, or hopefully achieved, in 2050.

"The possibility of that is very high," Maeda said. "Different regions have different needs."